Prices · evidence and gaps
Are data centres making Irish electricity bills higher?
Whether data centres raise Irish household bills is contested and unmeasured. One NGO-commissioned model puts the wholesale effect at about €360 per household over 2015–23; our rerun of its method reproduces it in size, but it is a short-run, upper-end model, and CRU network-charge figures cut both ways. The largest industrial users in Ireland paid €0.165/kWh in 2026-S1, null times the EU figure (Eurostat).
Updated 9 October 2026 · data build 2026-10-10 · how we know · corrections
What the evidence says
partly true (size uncertain) Probably yes through wholesale prices, by an amount that depends on the model. The Fearon/FoE study put it at ~EUR 360 per household over 2015-23; our rerun of its method on independent data gives a similar ~EUR 290 for 2021-23 alone and ~EUR 110-130 a year now, but the method holds imports and power plants fixed, so treat it as an upper-end estimate. The PSO levy is split by share of peak demand, so households pay 34% of it while using 27.5% of electricity, roughly EUR 5 a year each. Network charges cut both ways: extra-large users' rose 175% from 2020-21 to 2024-25 (households 31%), but from 2024-25 to 2029-30 they are set to fall 20% while households' rise 15%.
Who says what
| Side | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Industry / Government | Onsite plants could double build costs (argument against cost-shifting rules) | DII via Irish Times (12 Dec 2025) |
| Industry / Government | Large energy users' network tariffs +175% vs households +45% (2020-2026) | CRU evidence via Irish Examiner (29 Sep 2026) |
| Critics / researchers | €360 per household 2015-2023 (€715m); €295-€644 more 2025-2034 | Fearon for FoE / Beyond Fossil Fuels (May 2026) |
| Critics / researchers | Domestic network costs +8-21% over five years while large users' fall 14% | RTÉ Prime Time citing CRU PR6 (Aug 2025) |
| Critics / researchers | €600m of LEU network costs rebalanced onto others (€50m/yr over 12 years) | Una Mullally citing Oireachtas testimony (Jan 2026) |
Our data: Eurostat: big users pay €0.159/kWh vs EU €0.110; our rerun of the FoE wholesale model gives ~€110-130 per household a year (short-run, upper-end estimate); CRU PR6 archetypes: extra-large users +175% vs households +31% (2020-21 to 2024-25), then -20% vs +15% to 2029-30. Note that the CRU-sourced tariff claims point in opposite directions.
How the wholesale price is set
How the wholesale price is set, and what a flat load would pay
The last, dearest unit needed sets the price each half-hour. A data centre draws the same power all day, so at spot prices it would pay the plain time average, €136.9/MWh over the last year; wind earned 14.7% less, €116.7.
In the day-ahead market, offers are ranked from cheapest to dearest and the price in each half-hour is set where that stack meets demand, so on still evenings older gas plant sets a high price and on windy nights the price falls. Across the last 12 months (2025-10-04 to 2026-10-09) the Irish price averaged €136.9/MWh, with 13.1% of half-hours above €200. A flat load like a data centre buying at spot prices would pay that time average, 1.3% below what the national demand profile paid (€138.7). Wind earned €116.7 because it produces most when prices are low; a flat load still has to buy power when the wind is not blowing, so a wind contract alone does not cover it. Most large users hedge, so this is a spot benchmark, not what any site pays.
EstimatePanel 1 is a schematic of how a pay-as-clear auction works (general description, unchecked against the SEM rulebook; "often" is not measured here). Energy prices only: bills add network, capacity, PSO, taxes and supplier margin.
Sources: SEMOpx day-ahead market results (ROI half-hourly index price), 2026-10-09 · EirGrid Smart Grid Dashboard (demand and wind weights), 2026-10-10
Ireland's wholesale power against 8 other markets, 2025
Ireland had the highest average price of the 9 markets, €114/MWh, with the most hours above €200, and only 0.7% of hours below zero.
Each bar is the average hourly day-ahead price in 2025. Ireland averaged €114.4/MWh against €89.4 in Germany and €61.1 in France. Prices topped €200 in 6.0% of Irish hours and fell below zero in 0.7%; Germany had 5.8% negative hours, which a flexible user can soak up and a flat one cannot. These are wholesale energy prices only, not what any customer's bill shows.
Sources: Ember European wholesale electricity prices, hourly (CC BY 4.0), 2026-10-03
What large users pay, against Europe
Electricity price for the biggest users, €/kWh
Band ≥150 GWh a year, excluding VAT and recoverable taxes, 2026-S1. National averages, not individual contracts.
Eurostat nrg_pc_205 · updated 2026-10-09
Carbon intensity of electricity, gCO₂/kWh, 2025
Ember yearly electricity data (CC-BY-4.0) · generation-based, ignores carbon in imports