Electricity use: from 5% in 2015 to 23.2% in 2025
Data-centre electricity each year, metered by the CSO, with its share of all metered electricity above each bar. EirGrid's forecasts sit apart, labelled.Measured
TWh a year, with the share of all metered electricity above each bar · CSO MEC02, updated 2026-07-07
Which operators draw it, 2025 (TWh)
The 16 EPA-licensed sites that file annual reports drew 6.8 TWh from the grid in 2025, equal to 89% of the CSO's 7.7 TWh for all data centres (Amazon alone: 49%). Read the shares as upper bounds: taken at face value they leave only about 99 MW for every other campus, the low end of what those sites plausibly use. Some of the gap is real (several campuses run partly or wholly on their own gas, which the CSO's meter data doesn't count), and the CSO says it may miss new or small sites. Amazon's share is roughly 40–50%.
EPA annual environmental reports × CSO MEC02
Where it's heading Forecast
CSO counts metered consumption; EirGrid forecasts total demand, so the two don't match exactly. Earlier figures (1,300 MVA connected/contracted, 1,600 MVA applied) date from EirGrid's July 2020 consultation. The 2025/2034 TWh forecast is EirGrid's as cited in CRU2025236.
The bottleneck: why new data centres are stalled
Six gates stand between a plan and the power it uses: which are shut, why, and when each could open. Click a gate for its numbers and sources.
Six gates between a data-centre plan and the power it uses
A new campus has to pass every gate, and four are shut or nearly shut. Incumbents with old grid contracts skip to gate 5, which is why use keeps rising while new building stalls. Click any gate for what the problem is, in plain terms.
Our reading Use keeps creeping up as incumbents fill contracts they already hold. Few new campuses before about 2028, when the stability fix should bite; after that, growth is likely outside Dublin and paced by gas and unsubsidised wind.
5. Grid stability
Stops: Everyone, incumbents included
When a fault dips the voltage, data centres protect their servers by switching to on-site power, all at the same moment. The grid then suddenly loses that demand and frequency jumps. EirGrid can only handle losing 900 MW at once, and data centres alone now add up to about that.
Think of it asA ferry where a large group of passengers rushes to one side at once. The ferry can absorb some, but not if everyone moves together.
- Why it's hard to fix
- It's fixable with equipment and rules: sites must ride through faults instead of dropping off. The new Grid Code rule applies from 27 Oct 2026, but existing sites get 24 months to comply, with demand held near 2025 levels until then.
- What would change it
- Fault ride-through compliance (MPID 345, CRU2026145); ESB Networks' matching rule for distribution-connected sites (not yet proposed).
- When it could ease
- Our reading: from about late 2028, if campuses comply.
Sources: EirGrid/SONI weekly operating constraints, wk 41, 2026 · CRU202704, 8 Jul 2026 · CRU2026145, 22 Sep 2026
When could each binding gate ease? Red line = now (Oct 2026). Click a row.
The path follows the CRU's large energy user decision (CRU/2025/236, Dec 2025) and EirGrid's connection policy. Red gates are binding now; planning is amber because the delay is a process problem that decisions could fix, while the grid, gas and wind gates need physical building. Operators holding grid contracts from before November 2021 (about 2.0–2.4 GW against 875 MW average use in 2025) can grow without new permission, connections, gas or renewables, but are held near 2025 levels until they meet the new fault ride-through rule. The timeline shows when each binding gate could ease on our reading of the dates in the sources; it is not a forecast.
EstimateGate statuses, the "when it could ease" dates and the timeline are our reading of the sources; the offshore date (~2031–32) is our estimate.
Sources: CRU/2025/236, 12 Dec 2025 · EirGrid Constrained Area Overview, 20 May 2026 · CRU2026145, 22 Sep 2026 · CRU202657, Jun 2026 · PlanSight, to 27 Sep 2026 · CSO MEC02, Jul 2026
Where people stand: grow with conditions, or pause
Read from what each said in the Dáil, in the CRU's 2025 consultation and in council plans. Click a party for the full breakdown, with their own words.Machine reading
Where the parties and governments stand
Average stance of each group's speakers, each speaker weighted once. Hover for the numbers; click to read the summary.
Most agree
- Grid capacity is a top concern for most parties, state bodies and industry groups
- Most tie data-centre growth to renewable power, via PPAs, private wires or siting
- Many seek more published data on data-centre demand, emissions and grid capacity
They split on
- Campaigners and the Social Democrats seek a moratorium; Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and industry groups oppose one
- Gas Networks Ireland and several firms back on-site gas; campaigners and the EPA warn it raises emissions
- Sinn Féin, Labour and People Before Profit–Solidarity say data centres raise bills; ESB Customer Solutions disagrees
Every party, politician, company, council and campaign group, with their own words → · read by Claude from 529 Dáil records, consultation responses and council plans; quotes checked · as of 2026-10-10
Six findings from the public record
Our sharpest findings so far, each with its source. Each one opens its evidence.
Four possible futures to 2032
Pick a future to see it against what's measured today, and what it would mean for electricity, gas, carbon, renewables and jobs. Scenarios, not forecasts.Scenario
Data centres' share of Ireland's metered electricity in 2032 · the tick on each bar is 2025, measured (23.2%)
Frozen. Nothing new connects to the grid. Operators fill contracts signed before 2021, mostly with denser AI racks on existing Dublin campuses.
Data centres' share of all metered electricity, % · measured: CSO MEC02, to 2025 · scenarios: StackPath model, Oct 2026 · shaded band = the range of the four futures · click a line to pick it
What Frozen would mean by 2032
1.7× what they used in 2025, and 1.4× what every Irish home used that year.
CSO MEC02, 2025; scenario model
About 3 in every 10 units metered in Ireland, against 23.2% in 2025.
CSO MEC02; other demand grows 1% a year (assumption)
No load above what EirGrid already expects, so no extra call on spare capacity. Data centres would burn 17.1% of the gas used that day.
GNI Winter Outlook 2025/26; CRU202657; scenario model
35% over the sector's ceiling. Every future overshoots, the lowest by 15%: data centres decide by how much. Their own share: 7.1 Mt.
Sectoral Emissions Ceilings 2022; EPA 2025; scenario model
None needed: nothing new connects, and contracts signed before 2021 are exempt from the 80% rule.
CRU/2025/236; PlanSight permitted pool; scenario model
53% of the 2020 peak (14,300 direct construction jobs).
DETE/KPMG, Jun 2026 (55 jobs per MW built); scenario model
Explore the four futures year by year: what each assumes, what breaks first, what to watch →
Scenarios, not forecasts or recommendations. Every input is listed with its source or marked as an assumption; hardware, grid and generation costs per MW are unchecked, so read the € figures as orders of magnitude.