Renewables · PPAs and the 80% rule
Do Ireland's data centres run on renewables?
No Irish data centre runs physically on 100% renewable power: they draw the grid mix, which in 2025 was 48% gas as a share of domestic generation (40.2% of demand, Ember, incl. imports). Data-centre firms have announced 1,909 MW of Irish power purchase agreements, and new sites must match 80% of demand with new Irish renewables (CRU, December 2025).
Updated 10 October 2026 · data build 2026-10-10 · how we know · corrections
Is there enough new renewable power for them?
Which renewables can count toward the 80%, and is there enough?
Data-centre growth to 2034 needs about 4.16 TWh a year of new, unsubsidised Irish renewables. Permitted wind and solar without a state contract could supply about 6.0 TWh on our estimate, and wind alone falls short.
The CRU rule counts only new renewables in the Republic that have no state support, so the large pool of RESS-contracted wind and solar (8.16 TWh a year) and the data-centre deals already announced for existing sites are ruled out. What remains is permitted onshore wind and solar still looking for a buyer, and two offshore wind farms that lost the 2023 auction and could sell to data centres from the early 2030s. The need of 4.16 TWh is 80% of the growth EirGrid forecasts from 9.4 TWh in 2025 to 14.6 TWh in 2034, a forecast cited second-hand in the CRU decision.
EstimateTWh from MW at assumed capacity factors: onshore wind 30%, solar 11% (unchecked round numbers; curtailment not deducted). Offshore output is EirGrid's deemed figure.
Sources: CRU/2025/236 s.3.5, 2025-12-12 · Planning registers via PlanSight (permitted pool); EirGrid RESS 1–5 results, 2026-10-10 · Company announcements (PPAs), compiled by StackPath, 2026-10-03 · EirGrid ORESS 1 results; offshore tracker, 2026-10-10
The supply gap, TWh a year
Assumed capacity factors: wind 30%, solar 11% (curtailment not deducted). Plants with state support (RESS/REFIT) can't count. Pool MW is mostly estimated from turbine counts and site area. "Growth" is EirGrid's 2025 → 2034 forecast (9.4 → 14.6 TWh, as cited in CRU2025236), one basis throughout; the CSO's metered 2025 figure (7.662 TWh) is lower and not comparable.
Corporate PPAs by buyer (MW)
No announced PPAs found for Equinix, Digital Realty, CyrusOne, EdgeConneX, Vantage or Echelon. Older deals serve existing sites and don't count toward the new rule.
Annual vs hourly matching
A portfolio sized to meet Ireland's rule exactly (80% of annual energy, 80/20 wind/solar) matches about 70% of a flat load hour by hour, and covers 80% of load in only 50% of hours, so under Spain's draft it would fall in the top hourly-surcharge band in 12 of 12 months. Reaching 80% hourly-matched needs about 1.2x the load's annual energy in contracted output (1.5x what Ireland's rule requires); passing Spain's per-hour test in every hour is not reachable with wind and solar alone (even 3x gives 89% of hours).
| Mix | Contracted output, % of annual load | Load matched hour by hour | Hours ≥80% covered (Spain's test) |
|---|---|---|---|
| wind only | 80% | 65.3% | 45.4% |
| 80% wind / 20% solar | 80% | 69.5% | 50.1% |
| 80% wind / 20% solar | 100% | 76.1% | 59.9% |
| 80% wind / 20% solar | 150% | 84.9% | 74.2% |
| 80% wind / 20% solar | 200% | 89.5% | 81.4% |
| 80% wind / 20% solar | 300% | 93.9% | 89.2% |
| Rule | Matching | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| IE CRU/2025/236 (decision, 12 Dec 2025) | annual | at least 80% of annual demand | in force (connection policy); judicial review pending |
| ES Draft Royal Decree on data-centre sustainability and digital sovereignty (MITECO, urgent procedure) | hourly | 80% of total consumption from additional renewables (Art. 8) AND each hour at least 80% backed by renewables generated in that hour (Art. 9) | draft; public consultation 27 Aug-4 Sep 2026; final adoption not found as of 3 Oct 2026 (unchecked beyond press search) |
| DE EnEfG s.11(5) (in force since Nov 2023) | annual balance ('bilanziell') | 50% from 1 Jan 2024, 100% from 1 Jan 2027 | in force |
Flat 24/7 load; portfolio shaped like the national wind and solar fleet (EirGrid actual output, 2025-10 to 2026-09). The fleet is smoother than any single portfolio, so real figures would be lower. Spain's rule is a draft.
Could any operator pass an 80%-every-hour test today? model
Modelled on public data, none of the 6 operators with EPA-reported loads would pass an 80%-every-hour test today. Best placed on paper (every announced ROI deal counted as if fully built): Microsoft (70% of hours, 132% annual cover; counting only deals marked fully operational, 0% of hours and 13% cover, as 900 of its 967 MW are partly built, under construction or framework deals), Meta (32% of hours, 62% annual cover), Google (13% of hours, 25% annual cover). Passing every hour needs firm low-carbon supply close to 80% of load (77-81% after rounding) even with contracts topped up to 2x the load's energy and a 4-hour battery (still 86-88% of hours pass). With storage alone, a battery of 0.8x load would need about 121-126 hours (about 5 days) of storage: the longest Irish wind-and-solar lull sets the size.
| Operator (EPA-licensed sites) | Load 2025 | Irish CPPAs | Annual cover | Hours ≥80% | Extra MW for 80% hourly-matched | Firm low-carbon MW to pass every hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon (AWS) | 425 MW | 334 MW | 24% | 0% | 1,781 | 333 |
| Microsoft | 154 MW | 967 MW 67 operating | 132% 13% operating | 70% 0% operating | 0 | 121 |
| Meta | 135 MW | 455 MW | 62% | 32% | 365 | 106 |
| 26 MW | 58 MW | 25% | 13% | 122 | 20 | |
| Equinix | 19 MW | 0 MW | 0% | 0% | 98 | 15 |
| K2 Strategic | 18 MW | 0 MW | 0% | 0% | 93 | 14 |
Estimates from a model, not site data: no hourly site loads or PPA outputs are public. Load = 2025 grid electricity in EPA annual reports, assumed flat; CPPAs = announced Irish deals by buyer at assumed capacity factors (wind 30%, solar 11%), shaped like the national fleet; the main figures count every announced deal as if built, and the grey "operating" line counts only deals marked fully operational (the truth for partly built portfolios lies between). 0% means no announced Irish CPPA was found, not that the operator buys no renewable power. Extra MW = new 80/20 wind/solar contracts. Firm MW assumes contracts topped up to 2× the load's energy plus a 4-hour battery of half the load. On-site gas engines are firm but not renewable, so they do not count; no campus document states an on-site battery. Spain's additionality rule is not applied.
PlanSight planning · EirGrid RESS 1–5 · company and developer announcements · CRU2025236 · MITECO draft decree (Aug 2026) · EnEfG §11 · EirGrid Smart Grid Dashboard · as of 2026-10-10
Every announced power purchase agreement in Ireland
Company announcements, compiled by StackPath. Northern Ireland deals excluded. MW as announced; some are shares of existing wind farms, not new build.