World · power equipment
Gas turbines and transformers: years of orders on the books, and prices up since 2020
GE Vernova had 116 GW of gas turbines under contract at 2026 Q2: 53 GW of orders and 63 GW of slot reservations (SEC filing). At its planned 20 GW a year that is about 5.8 years of output (our arithmetic). Siemens Energy reported a 69 GW firm backlog (Q3 FY2026). US transformer producer prices are +86% since January 2020 (BLS, Aug 2026).
Updated 11 October 2026 · data build 2026-10-10 · how we know · corrections
116 GW of gas turbines under contract at GE Vernova: about 5.8 years of planned output
Gas turbine backlog plus slot reservations at 2026 Q2, against the 20 GW a year GE Vernova plans to reach in the third quarter of 2026. Measured
Source: GE Vernova Q2 2026 earnings release (8-K) · GE Vernova 10-Q · BLS PPI · Wood Mackenzie (via POWER magazine) · as of 2026-10-11 · Compiled by StackPath
GE Vernova's book grew from 50 to 116 GW in 5 quarters; reservations grew fastest
Gas turbine backlog (firm orders) and slot reservations, GW, at each quarter-end, with the gigawatts signed, converted from reservations and shipped in the quarter. Measured
| Quarter | Signed GW | Converted GW | Orders GW (10-Q) | Shipped GW (10-Q) | Backlog GW | Reserved GW | Under contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 20 | 10 | 12.1 | 3.3 | 53 | 63 | 116 |
| 2026 Q1 | 21 | 6 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 44 | 56 | 100 |
| 2025 Q4 | 24 | 8 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 40 | 43 | 83 |
| 2025 Q3 | 12 | 7 | 7.4 | 4 | 33 | 29 | 62 |
| 2025 Q2 | 9 | 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 29 | 25 | 55 |
| 2025 Q1 | 7 | – | 7.1 | 3 | 29 | 21 | 50 |
Q4 orders and shipments are the full year (10-K) minus the first nine months. GE Vernova's own combined figure is shown under contract; it can differ by 1 GW from the sum because of rounding. GE Vernova expects at least 125 GW under contract by the end of 2026.
Download CSV ↓Source: GE Vernova quarterly earnings releases and 10-Q/10-K (SEC EDGAR) · as of 2026-10-11 · Compiled by StackPath
Firm orders against shipments each quarter: orders exceeded shipments in 5 of 6 quarters, and were 3.7× shipments in 2026 Q2. Full years: 2024 orders 20.2 GW, shipped 11.9 GW; 2025 orders 29.8 GW, shipped 15.3 GW (10-K). Reservations come on top of orders.
The three big makers hold about 157 GW of firm gas-turbine orders
Firm backlog in GW at the latest quarter each reports, against a year of output. Reservations (GE Vernova only) are excluded so the three are on the same footing. Reported
| Maker | Period | Firm backlog GW | Output GW a year | Basis for output | Years of firm backlog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova | 2026 Q2 | 53 | 20 | target from the third quarter of 2026 | 2.6 |
| Siemens Energy | Q3 FY2026 | 69 | 15.5 | CEO: 15–16 GW of deliveries expected this year (midpoint) | 4.5 |
| Mitsubishi Heavy | Q1 FY2026 | 35 | 16 | large-frame GW 'sold' in FY2025 (to Mar 2026), as reported | 2.2 |
Years of firm backlog is our arithmetic. GE Vernova: SEC filings. Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy: results as reported by Utility Dive (August 2026); MHI counts large-frame turbines only, and another outlet (EUCI) gives its backlog as 32 GW. Fiscal periods differ.
Download CSV ↓Source: Siemens Energy earnings release Q2 FY2026 (12 May 2026) · Utility Dive, 10 Aug 2026 (Q3 FY2026 results) · Utility Dive, 13 Aug 2026 (Q1 FY2026 results) · GE Vernova 8-K · as of 2026-10-11 · Compiled by StackPath
Siemens Energy: CEO expects 15–16 GW of gas turbine deliveries this year; transformer and gas-insulated switchgear capacity to grow about 50% by 2030.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Large-frame turbines only. Plans to double gas turbine production capacity against 2024; orders booked in the quarter deliver 2028–30. EUCI reports the backlog as 32 GW, not 35.
Transformers +86%, switchgear +89%: grid equipment prices have far outrun turbines (+28%)
US producer price indices, January 2020 = 100. Measured
| Index (BLS) | Series | Since Jan 2020 | Year on year | From peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transformers | PCU335311335311 | +86% | +7.8% | at peak |
| Transformers and power regulators | WPU1174 | +84% | +7.6% | at peak |
| Switchgear | PCU335313335313 | +89% | +13.3% | at peak |
| Turbines | PCU333611333611 | +28% | +5.3% | -0.2% (Jul 2026) |
| Motors and generators | PCU335312335312 | +46% | +3.9% | at peak |
| Electrical machinery | WPU117 | +38% | +13.5% | at peak |
| Copper wire and cable | WPU10260314 | +99% | +27.2% | at peak |
| Power wire and cable | PCU3359293359291 | +116% | -13.8% | -20.3% (Jul 2025) |
Latest month Aug 2026, preliminary. These are US prices; European prices are not published on a comparable monthly basis.
Download CSV (Jan 2020 = 100) ↓Source: BLS producer price indices · as of 2026-10-11 · BLS public API (2026-10-11) · Compiled by StackPath
Order books for grid equipment: GE Vernova's Electrification equipment backlog rose from $22bn (2025 Q1) to $40.6bn (2026 Q2), including about $5bn from buying Prolec GE in February 2026 (10-Q, earnings releases). Siemens Energy's Grid Technologies backlog was €51bn at 30 Jun 2026, up from €49bn a quarter earlier.
The case that the squeeze is overstated
Evidence that backlogs overstate firm demand, or that supply is catching up. Our reading
- Reservations are not orders. 63 of GE Vernova's 116 GW are slot reservations; its 10-K warns holders may not order as much as they reserved, or at all.
- Capacity is coming. GE Vernova plans 20 GW a year by the third quarter of 2026, 24 GW a year by 2028, 30 GW a year by 2030; Mitsubishi Heavy plans to double capacity on 2024; Siemens Energy plans about 50% more transformer and switchgear capacity by 2030.
- Some prices are falling. US power wire and cable prices are -13.8% y/y and -20.3% from their Jul 2025 peak, though the copper wire and cable index is +27.2% y/y. Distribution-transformer supply has improved (Wood Mackenzie).
- But output lags the plan. GE Vernova shipped 7.5 GW in the first half of 2026, an annual rate of about 15 GW, below the 20 GW a year it targets from the third quarter (10-Q; our arithmetic).
What SemiAnalysis says, and what the filings show
Paraphrased from the free section of a SemiAnalysis post; their models and paywalled numbers are not used. Editorial judgement
Siemens Energy is Europe's stake; Ireland needs the same equipment
Reported
Our reading. The order books say gas turbines and grid equipment are booked years ahead, and US prices for transformers and switchgear have nearly doubled since 2020. The weak points in that reading are the reservations, which can lapse, and capacity plans, which could ease the queue from 2028 if they are met.
GE Vernova's gigawatt figures are its own: 'backlog' is firm orders; 'slot reservation agreements' are paid reservations for future production slots that are not yet orders. GE Vernova warns that reservation holders may not place orders equal to their reservations, or at all (10-K, risk factors). Years of backlog = gigawatts under contract divided by a year of output (our arithmetic). Output is shipments as reported, or the maker's stated capacity target where shown; plans can slip. Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries report on different fiscal years and definitions (MHI: large-frame turbines only), and their figures come from results releases and trade-press reports, so the three makers are not strictly comparable. RPO (remaining performance obligations) is contracted revenue not yet recognised, in US dollars; equipment RPO excludes long-term service agreements. Producer price indices are US prices (BLS), January 2020 = 100; the latest months are preliminary.
Questions people ask
- How long is the wait for a gas turbine?
- Years. GE Vernova had 116 GW under contract at 2026 Q2, against 15.3 GW shipped in 2025 and a plan of 20 GW a year from the third quarter of 2026, 24 GW a year from 2028, 30 GW a year from 2030 (SEC filings). Mitsubishi Heavy says orders booked in mid-2026 deliver in 2028–30 (Utility Dive, August 2026).
- What is a gas turbine slot reservation?
- A paid reservation of a future production slot, made before a firm order. GE Vernova held 63 GW of them at 2026 Q2, on top of 53 GW of firm orders. Its 10-K warns that holders may not place orders equal to their reservations, or at all.
- How long are transformer lead times?
- Wood Mackenzie (via POWER magazine) put average lead times at about 128 weeks for power transformers and 144 weeks for generator step-up transformers in its Q2 2025 survey (headline figures, reported 2 Jan 2026).
- How much have transformer and switchgear prices risen?
- US producer prices for transformers are +86% since January 2020 and +7.8% on a year earlier; switchgear +89% and +13.3%; turbines and generator sets +28% (BLS, Aug 2026).
- Which European companies make gas turbines and transformers?
- Siemens Energy (Germany) is one of the three main makers of large gas turbines, with GE Vernova (US) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan), and a large maker of transformers and switchgear.