US · power and grid
The US power crunch: capacity prices at the cap, queues and gas built off the grid
PJM's 2028/29 capacity auction cleared at its price cap of $325/MW-day, 6,831 MW short of its reliability requirement; uncapped it would have been $554.72 (PJM, 2026-07-14). That is 11× the 2024/25 price. US generation queues held 2,290 GW at end-2024, and a typical project took 55 months to connect (LBNL).
Updated 12 October 2026 · data build 2026-10-10 · how we know · corrections
PJM's capacity price hit its cap: $325/MW-day for 2028/29, 11× the 2024/25 price
Base Residual Auction clearing price for the whole PJM region, by delivery year (June to May). PJM serves 13 states and DC, including Virginia's data-centre cluster. Measured
| Delivery year | $/MW-day | $/MWh flat load | Cleared UCAP MW | Target reserve | Reserve procured | Cleared × price $bn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028/29 | 325 | 13.54 | 138,318 | 20% | 14.7% | 16.4 |
| 2027/28 | 333.44 | 13.89 | 134,478 | 20% | 14.9% | 16.4 |
| 2026/27 | 329.17 | 13.72 | 134,205 | 18.6% | 18.9% | 16.1 |
| 2025/26 | 269.92 | 11.25 | 135,684 | 17.8% | 18.5% | 14.7 |
| 2024/25 | 28.92 | 1.21 | 147,479 | 17.7% | 20.4% | 2.2 |
| 2023/24 | 34.13 | 1.42 | 144,871 | 14.9% | 20.3% | 2.2 |
| 2022/23 | 50 | 2.08 | 144,477 | 14.9% | 19.9% | 3.9 |
| 2021/22 | 140 | 5.83 | 163,627 | 14.7% | 21.5% | 9.3 |
| 2020/21 | 76.53 | 3.19 | 165,109 | 15.5% | 23.3% | 7 |
| 2019/20 | 100 | 4.17 | 167,306 | 16% | 22.4% | 7 |
| 2018/19 | 164.77 | 6.87 | 166,837 | 16.1% | 19.8% | 10.9 |
Source: PJM, 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction report, Table 2 and appendix · as of 2026-07-14 · $/MWh column is our arithmetic (÷24) · Compiled by StackPath
PJM expects peak demand to rise 66 GW by 2036, but cut its near-term forecast to strip out speculative loads
PJM RTO summer peak forecast, three successive January forecasts. Each line is a forecast, not a measurement. Estimate
Source: PJM load forecast data workbooks 2024–2026 · PJM 2026 Load Forecast Report · as of 2026-10-11 · summer peak = highest monthly peak in the year · Compiled by StackPath
Nationally, utilities' five-year forecasts add up to 166 GW of extra peak demand, against 24 GW three years earlier; about 90 GW is linked to data centres. Grid Strategies judges that part likely overstated by roughly 25 GW (Grid Strategies, Nov 2025; estimate).
2,290 GW of power plants wait to connect; a typical one takes 55 months
Interconnection queues: projects that have asked the grid operator to connect, at end-2024. Measured
Source: LBNL, Queued Up 2025 · as of 2025-12-15 · data to end-2024 · Compiled by StackPath
Texas: large loads asking to connect
| Measure | GW | As at | Source | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large loads asking to connect (about 90% data centres) | 474 | 2026-08-03 | Utility Dive | reported |
| Large loads asking to connect | 438 | late May 2026 | New Project Media | reported |
| Large loads asking to connect | 410 | 2026-04 | The Texas Tribune | reported |
| Large loads asking to connect | 226 | 2025-11 | Latitude Media | reported |
| Large loads approved to energise | 8.9 | 2026-06 | Zero Emission Grid (summary of ERCOT Large Load Working Group, 19 Jun 2026) | reported |
| Approved large loads seen running (non-coincident peak) | 3.9 | 2026-06 | Zero Emission Grid | reported |
| Loads cleared except final approval (paused since 3 Aug) | 6.6 | 2026-08-20 | Utility Dive | reported |
| ERCOT preliminary forecast, 2032 peak demand (ERCOT says likely too high) | 367.8 | filed 2026-04-15 | American Public Power Association | reported |
ERCOT's own files refuse scripted downloads from here, so these figures are as reported in the named sources.
Download CSV ↓Requested data-centre load is 2–53× what is connected or expected, from Spain to Texas: our ghost-load ratio, compared across Texas and Europe.
Our reading. The counter-argument, that much of the shortage is on paper, holds in part: most requested load will never connect, and PJM's own cut to its near-term forecast shows planners discounting it. It does not explain away the auction: PJM cleared short of its reliability requirement two years running on a forecast that had already been trimmed.
The federal inventory shows 13.3 GW of gas under construction; Global Energy Monitor counts 52 GW
EIA-860M (2026-08): every planned US generating unit of 1 MW or more reported to EIA, by stage and technology, MW nameplate. Measured
| Stage | Gas | Solar | Batteries | Wind | Nuclear | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under construction or built, awaiting operation | 13,296 | 46,910 | 23,544 | 14,654 | 0 | 327 | 98,731 |
| Approved, not started | 5,548 | 14,488 | 5,432 | 1,639 | 0 | 74 | 27,180 |
| Proposed (approvals pending or not started) | 50,605 | 60,861 | 35,427 | 7,461 | 4,968 | 3,310 | 162,632 |
Source: EIA-860M, 2026-08 · Global Energy Monitor, US gas and data centres · as of 2026-10-11 · stages grouped by StackPath from EIA status codes · Compiled by StackPath
Gas is 13% of what is being built for the grid; solar and batteries are most of it. Of 56.2 GW of gas not yet started, most has no approval yet. GEM's wider count (378 GW in development, 52 GW under construction, against 24 GW in China) includes plants that EIA does not yet list.
What came online, and what is due
Source: EIA-860M, 2026-08: operating units by first year of operation; later years are units under construction by planned year · as of 2026-10-11 · 2026 = online so far plus due this year · Compiled by StackPath
5 of 9 AI campuses' gas plants, 3.4 GW, have no match in EIA's federal inventory
On-site or dedicated gas generation for named AI campuses: what permits, regulators and companies say, against the units EIA-860M lists for the same plants. Reported
| Campus | Company / customer | State | Announced or permitted | Connection | In EIA-860M | Permit / approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xAI Colossus 1, Memphis | xAI | TN | 247 MW (15 turbines permitted) | mixed | none found | Shelby County Health Department, 2025-07-02 |
| xAI Colossus 2, Southaven plant | xAI | MS | 1,200 MW (41 turbines) | behind-the-meter | none found | Mississippi Permit Board (MDEQ), 2026-03-10 |
| Homer City Energy Campus | Homer City Redevelopment / data-centre tenants not named | PA | 4,400 MW (7 GE 7HA.02 + 10 FT8) | mixed | 4,396 MW | Pennsylvania DEP (plan approval 32-00457A), 2025-11-18 |
| Meta Hyperion, first three plants | Entergy Louisiana / Meta | LA | 2,262 MW (3 combined-cycle plants) | utility, grid-connected | 2,381 MW | Louisiana PSC (4-1), 2025-08-20 |
| Meta Hyperion, seven more plants | Entergy Louisiana / Meta | LA | 5,200 MW (7 gas plants) | utility, grid-connected | 3,941 MW | Louisiana PSC, docket U-37882, pending |
| Stargate Abilene | Crusoe / Oracle / OpenAI | TX | 360 MW (10 turbines; 41 more sought) | mixed | none found | TCEQ (minor permits 2024; major permit pending), 2024 |
| Fermi America Project Matador | Fermi America / no tenant confirmed | TX | 5,175 MW (93 turbines permitted) | behind-the-meter | 11,679 MW | TCEQ (permit 181009), 2026-02-25 |
| Meta New Albany (Williams Socrates) | Williams / Meta | OH | 400 MW (2 sites × 200 MW) | behind-the-meter | none found | Ohio Power Siting Board (South), 2025-06-09 |
| Project Jade, Cheyenne | Tallgrass / Crusoe / not named | WY | 1,150 MW (2 M501JAC, phase 1) | behind-the-meter | none found | Laramie County site plan; state air permit not found |
Mixed = on-site gas plus grid supply. xAI Colossus 1, Memphis: also draws grid power from MLGW. xAI Colossus 2, Southaven plant: 1.2 GW is xAI's figure; temporary turbines also run. Homer City Energy Campus: grid or on-site supply not confirmed. Meta Hyperion, seven more plants: final vote reported for Dec 2026. Stargate Abilene: also on the ERCOT grid. Fermi America Project Matador: 5,175 MW is the permitted turbines' nameplate (our sum from TCEQ); Fermi plans 11 GW on the campus. Meta New Albany (Williams Socrates): North site decision not found. Project Jade, Cheyenne: press only.
Download CSV ↓Source: xAI Colossus 1: TechCrunch · xAI Colossus 2: Mississippi Public Broadcasting · Homer City Energy Campus: Pennsylvania DEP · Meta Hyperion: KPLC (Gray) · Meta Hyperion: ENR · Stargate Abilene: Floodlight / The Texas Tribune (via Insurance Journal) · Fermi America Project Matador: TCEQ Executive Director's Response to Public Comment · Meta New Albany (Williams Socrates): Williams · Project Jade: Power Engineering · as of 2026-10-11 · EIA-860M 2026-08 plant matches by StackPath · Compiled by StackPath
Our reading. The gap runs both ways. On-site turbines at xAI Colossus 1, Memphis; xAI Colossus 2, Southaven plant; Stargate Abilene; Meta New Albany (Williams Socrates); Project Jade, Cheyenne have no matching unit in EIA-860M, though several are permitted and some already run. Utility plants built for Meta, and Homer City, do appear, but as planned rather than under construction, and Fermi's entry (11.7 GW) is larger than its air permit. Federal statistics are a lagging and partial view of the AI gas build.
What SemiAnalysis says, and what the public data shows
Paraphrased from the free sections of SemiAnalysis posts; their models and paywalled figures are not used. Editorial judgement
Our reading. The US crunch is real at the margin and inflated in the queue. Real: PJM's auction cleared at its cap and short two years running, new firm supply is small, and AI campuses are building their own gas. Inflated: requested loads outnumber what grids expect to connect many times over, and PJM itself trimmed the near term. Europe's position is the reverse case, with high prices and long waits but no comparable surge of AI load: see where AI can plug in and Europe's grid queues.
PJM capacity prices are in $ per MW of unforced capacity (UCAP) per day; dividing by 24 gives $ per MWh only for a load that runs flat all year (our arithmetic). EIA-860M lists units that grid owners and generators report; on-site plants that do not sell to the grid, or that have not yet filed, may be missing. Status codes are as reported to EIA. EIA classifies most data centres as commercial customers, not industrial; both sectors are shown. ERCOT's own documents refuse scripted downloads from here; ERCOT figures are as reported in the named coverage and testimony, not read from ERCOT files. Grid Strategies and utility forecasts are forecasts, not measurements. LBNL's queue counts generation and storage, not loads. Campus rows are hand-compiled from permits, regulators, company releases and press (11 Oct 2026). Matches between campuses and EIA-860M plants marked 'our match' are our inference from location and timing. Two further campuses (Vantage Frontier, Shackelford County TX; Project Jupiter, NM) are left out because their gas figures could not be confirmed.
Questions people ask
- What is a capacity market, and what does $/MW-day mean?
- A capacity market pays power plants (and customers who can cut demand) to be available at peak, years ahead. PJM runs one auction a year for a delivery year starting each June. The price is dollars per megawatt of accredited capacity per day: $325/MW-day is about $118.6k per MW a year, or $13.54 for each MWh a flat load uses (our arithmetic).
- Why did PJM capacity prices rise so much?
- PJM's 2024/25 auction cleared at $28.92/MW-day; 2028/29 cleared at the $325 cap, with forecast load up and little new supply: 524.7 MW of new generation and uprates cleared. PJM's report attributes the load increase "largely" to large loads, mainly data centres. Without the cap the price would have been $554.72 (PJM, 2026-07-14).
- How much is US electricity demand forecast to grow because of data centres?
- PJM's January 2026 forecast puts its summer peak at 222,106 MW in 2036, up 65,733 MW in ten years. Nationally, utilities forecast 166 GW of peak growth over five years, about 90 GW of it data centres; Grid Strategies (Nov 2025) says the data-centre part is likely overstated by about 25 GW.
- Is the US data centre power shortage real or on paper?
- Both. Much of the queued demand is speculative: PJM cut its near-term forecast in January 2026 (2028 peak 165,567 MW, against 169,981 MW a year earlier) by requiring firm commitments from large loads. But the capacity auction is not on paper: it cleared 6,831 MW short of the reliability requirement for a second year.
- How much gas power is being built for US data centres?
- EIA-860M (2026-08) lists 13.3 GW of gas under construction or awaiting operation nationally. Global Energy Monitor counts 52 GW under construction, 16.9 GW of it directly for data centres (Aug 2026). The gap is partly plants built on site at data centres (behind the meter), which the federal inventory may not list. Ireland's SEM capacity auction cleared at €371/MW-day for 2029/30 (provisional), above PJM's capped price but below its uncapped one.