Global · AI capital
Who pays for the AI build-out: cash flow still covers it in total, but borrowing and leases are growing fast
In their latest four quarters (to June 2026; Oracle to August) Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle generated $707bn of operating cash and spent $586bn on capex, leaving $121bn of free cash flow, down from $196bn a year earlier. They raised $272bn of new debt, sold $78bn of new shares, and have signed $1.12tn of leases that have not yet started (SEC EDGAR, pulled 2026-10-11).
Updated 11 October 2026 · data build 2026-10-10 · how we know · corrections
$121bn of free cash flow left after $586bn of capex, down from $196bn a year earlier
Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle, latest four quarters each (to June 2026; Oracle to August), against the four quarters before. Measured
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts · as of 2026-10-11 · calendar quarters all five have reported, to 2026 Q2 · Compiled by StackPath
Capex grew 84% year on year; operating cash grew 37%. Free cash flow here is before equipment taken on finance leases, which would lower it further for Microsoft, Amazon and Meta.
The ledger: who is paying for the build-out
Every source of money we can see in filings and announcements. Flows are for the latest four quarters; leases, guarantees and funds are commitments. They are different measures and are not added up. Measured
| Who pays | What | Amount | Period | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own operating cash | Operating cash flow of the five | $707bn | latest 4 quarters | measured | SEC XBRL |
| …of which spent on capex | Cash paid for property and equipment | $586bn | latest 4 quarters | measured | SEC XBRL |
| Shareholders (paid less) | Buybacks cut from $110bn to $43bn; dividends $48bn | $67bn | year on year | measured | SEC XBRL |
| Bond and loan markets | New long-term debt raised (gross); $37bn repaid | $272bn | latest 4 quarters | measured | SEC XBRL |
| New shareholders | New common and mandatory convertible preferred shares (Alphabet, Oracle; Microsoft's ~$2bn is employee plans) | $78bn | latest 4 quarters | measured | Alphabet 10-Q |
| Landlords and developers | Leases signed but not yet started (future rent; off the balance sheet) | $1.12tn | stock at mid-2026 | measured | 10-Q/10-K notes |
| Joint-venture partners | Partners fund ~$27bn of development costs pro rata; Meta leases from 2029 and gives $28bn of residual value guarantees | $27bn | development cost | measured | Meta 10-Q |
| Chip supplier (vendor finance) | Guarantees: $105bn capped for an OpenAI-leased 4.25 GW SB Energy campus in Ohio (signed Aug 2026) plus $3.5bn land, power and shell guarantees for AI clouds | $108.5bn | cap, at 26 Jul 2026 | measured | Nvidia 10-Q |
| Hyperscaler backstops for others | Alphabet credit backstops for data-centre counterparties (from $16.9bn in Dec 2025), plus $7.6bn of guarantees and $24.1bn more agreed | $43.8bn | maximum exposure, Jun 2026 | measured | Alphabet 10-Q |
| Lab equity | OpenAI round led by SoftBank with a16z and others (Amazon $50bn, Nvidia $30bn, SoftBank $30bn reported); $852bn post-money valuation | $122bn | 31 Mar 2026 | reported | siliconangle.com |
| Lab equity | Anthropic Series H (led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia; GIC co-lead; Amazon $5bn); $965bn post-money valuation | $65bn | 28 May 2026 | reported | anthropic.com |
| Sovereign fund | MGX Fund I (Abu Dhabi; Mubadala and G42), final close; Investor in OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI rounds and in the Aligned Data Centers takeover (reported) | $49bn | 1 Jul 2026 | reported | qz.com |
Source: SEC EDGAR · company and press announcements, as linked · as of 2026-10-11 · Compiled by StackPath
Two of the five now spend more than they make: Oracle (−$28.7bn) and Amazon (−$11.6bn)
Free cash flow by company, latest four quarters. CoreWeave, the largest US neocloud, and Nvidia, the main chip supplier, are shown for contrast. Measured
| Company | Four quarters to | Operating cash | Capex | Free cash flow | Buybacks | Dividends | New shares | Debt raised | Debt repaid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | 2026 Q2 | 182.9 | 116 | 67 | 22.3 | 26.5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Amazon | 2026 Q2 | 161.4 | 173 | -11.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 81.9 | 5 |
| Alphabet | 2026 Q2 | 185.7 | 132.4 | 53.3 | 17.4 | 10.3 | 49.6 | 89.4 | 19.3 |
| Meta | 2026 Q2 | 130.3 | 89.3 | 41 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 0 | 54.8 | 0 |
| Oracle | 2026 Q3 | 46.9 | 75.7 | -28.7 | 0 | 5.9 | 26.3 | 46.1 | 10.1 |
| CoreWeave | 2026 Q2 | 6.9 | 20.6 | -13.7 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 24.2 | 7 |
| Nvidia | 2026 Q3 | 134.4 | 7.4 | 127 | 55.3 | 6.7 | 0 | 24.9 | 0 |
US$ billions. 'New shares' includes mandatory convertible preferred stock and, for Microsoft, employee stock plans. Amazon's figures include its retail business.
Download CSV ↓Source: Microsoft (CIK 0000789019) · Amazon (CIK 0001018724) · Alphabet (CIK 0001652044) · Meta (CIK 0001326801) · Oracle (CIK 0001341439) · CoreWeave (CIK 0001769628) · Nvidia (CIK 0001045810) · as of 2026-10-11 · Compiled by StackPath
Nvidia, which sells the chips, made $127bn of free cash flow and bought back $55bn of its own shares over the same period: the cash in this build-out is collecting at the supplier.
Buybacks fell from $110bn to $43bn: Alphabet down 71%, Meta down 90%
Cash paid to repurchase shares, latest four quarters against the four before. Money not returned to shareholders is money kept for capex. Measured
| Company | Year before | Latest four quarters | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | $18.4bn | $22.3bn | 21% |
| Amazon | $0bn | $0bn | – |
| Alphabet | $59.2bn | $17.4bn | -71% |
| Meta | $31.7bn | $3.3bn | -90% |
| Oracle | $0.5bn | $0bn | -100% |
Source: SEC XBRL PaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock · as of 2026-10-11 · Compiled by StackPath
Microsoft is the exception: its buybacks rose to $22.3bn. Amazon reported no buybacks in either period and Oracle almost none.
Debt roughly doubled: from $232bn at end-2024 to $482bn by mid-2026
Bonds, notes and term loans on the balance sheet (excluding commercial paper and leases), sum of the five by quarter-end, from end-2024 (the first quarter all five tag the same way). Measured
| Company | End-2024 | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | $45bn (31 Dec 2024) | $40.3bn (30 Jun 2026) | −$4.7bn |
| Amazon | $58bn (31 Dec 2024) | $133bn (30 Jun 2026) | $75bn |
| Alphabet | $12bn (31 Dec 2024) | $100.2bn (30 Jun 2026) | $88.2bn |
| Meta | $28.8bn (31 Dec 2024) | $83.7bn (30 Jun 2026) | $54.8bn |
| Oracle | $88.6bn (30 Nov 2024) | $125.3bn (31 Aug 2026) | $36.7bn |
| CoreWeave | $8bn (31 Dec 2024) | $35.6bn (30 Jun 2026) | $27.5bn |
| Nvidia | $8.5bn (27 Oct 2024) | $33.4bn (26 Jul 2026) | $24.9bn |
| AMD | $1.7bn (28 Dec 2024) | $3.2bn (27 Jun 2026) | $1.5bn |
| Broadcom | $69.9bn (3 Nov 2024) | $61.1bn (2 Aug 2026) | −$8.8bn |
Debt as each company tags it in XBRL: Oracle's is notes and loans incl. current portion; CoreWeave's is the carrying amount of all its debt instruments. Oracle's and Nvidia's end-2024 figures are their nearest quarter-end.
Download CSV ↓Source: SEC XBRL LongTermDebt and related tags · as of 2026-10-11 · Compiled by StackPath
23% of their bonds were sold outside the dollar, 17% in euros and sterling
Every final bond prospectus supplement (424B2/424B5) that Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle filed with the SEC from January 2025 to October 2026, converted at the ECB reference rate on the filing date. Microsoft filed none. Calculated
| Filed | Company | Currency | Local amount (bn) | US$ bn | Tranches | Maturities |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2026 | Amazon | GBP | 4.25 | 5.7 | 4 | 2029–2045 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Alphabet | USD | 25 | 25 | 10 | 2028–2066 |
| 8 Jul 2026 | Amazon | USD | 25 | 25 | 8 | 2029–2066 |
| 10 Jun 2026 | Amazon | CAD | 14 | 10.1 | 5 | 2029–2056 |
| 18 May 2026 | Alphabet | JPY | 576.5 | 3.6 | 7 | 2029–2066 |
| 7 May 2026 | Alphabet | EUR | 9 | 10.6 | 6 | 2030–2063 |
| 7 May 2026 | Alphabet | CAD | 8.5 | 6.2 | 4 | 2031–2056 |
| 1 May 2026 | Meta | USD | 25 | 25 | 6 | 2031–2066 |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Amazon | EUR | 14.5 | 16.6 | 8 | 2028–2064 |
| 12 Mar 2026 | Amazon | USD | 37 | 37 | 11 | 2028–2076 |
| 12 Feb 2026 | Alphabet | GBP | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5 | 2029–2126 |
| 11 Feb 2026 | Alphabet | USD | 20 | 20 | 7 | 2029–2066 |
| 3 Feb 2026 | Oracle | USD | 25 | 25 | 8 | 2029–2066 |
| 19 Nov 2025 | Amazon | USD | 15 | 15 | 6 | 2028–2065 |
| 5 Nov 2025 | Alphabet | EUR | 6.5 | 7.5 | 6 | 2028–2064 |
| 5 Nov 2025 | Alphabet | USD | 17.5 | 17.5 | 8 | 2028–2075 |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Meta | USD | 30 | 30 | 6 | 2030–2065 |
| 25 Sept 2025 | Oracle | USD | 18 | 18 | 6 | 2030–2065 |
| 1 May 2025 | Alphabet | EUR | 6.75 | 7.7 | 5 | 2029–2054 |
| 30 Apr 2025 | Alphabet | USD | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2030–2065 |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Oracle | USD | 7.75 | 7.8 | 6 | 2028–2065 |
Source: SEC EDGAR 424B prospectus supplements · ECB euro reference rates · as of 2026-10-11 · 21 currency lines from final prospectuses; total $326bn · Compiled by StackPath
Registered public bonds only: private placements, joint-venture bonds (such as the Louisiana campus venture's) and Oracle's term loans are not in this table, so it understates total borrowing. The longest is Alphabet's sterling tranche due 2126, a hundred-year bond.
The cost of money rose: the US 10-year yield is 5.22%, up from 4.49% in early July
Every lease, bond and data-centre loan is priced off this rate plus a spread for credit risk. Measured
Source: FRED DGS10 (Federal Reserve H.15) · as of 2026-10-08 · Compiled by StackPath
The spread (the extra yield investors want over Treasuries for company debt) is still narrow, so lenders are not yet pricing much extra risk. We show only the latest spread values because the ICE and Moody's series are licensed. Sources: FRED BAMLC0A0CM, FRED BAA10Y.
The other side: the strongest balance sheets are fine
The case that money is not yet the limit, tested against the same filings. Editorial judgement
- Microsoft kept $67bn of free cash flow, raised no new debt (its debt fell from $45bn to $40.3bn) and raised buybacks to $22.3bn.
- Alphabet and Meta still made $53bn and $41bn of free cash flow: they are borrowing and cutting buybacks while still cash-positive.
- Credit markets are open: the investment-grade spread was 0.82% on 8 Oct 2026, and the four issuers placed $326bn of public bonds in 21 months, in 5 currencies.
- Contracts cover the leases: the four cloud sellers' backlog of $2.36tn is about 2.1 times the five's unstarted leases (see AI backlog).
The weaker points are concentrated: Oracle (negative free cash flow, $288bn of unstarted leases, shares and preferred sold), CoreWeave (−$13.7bn free cash flow, $35.6bn of debt), off-balance-sheet guarantees at Meta ($28bn of residual value guarantees, $68bn more leases signed in July) and Alphabet ($43.8bn of credit backstops for data-centre counterparties, $24.1bn more agreed), and the AI labs whose contracts fill the backlog.
What SemiAnalysis says, and what the filings show
Paraphrased from the free section of a SemiAnalysis post; its model figures are not used. Editorial judgement
Europe and Ireland: European money funds the US build; the filings never name Ireland
Our reading
European bond buyers are lending to the build-out: $56bn of the four issuers' public bonds since January 2025 were in euros or sterling. None of the five hyperscalers says where its unstarted leases are; no 10-Q or 10-K we read names Ireland in its lease, debt or guarantee notes. European neoclouds borrow too, through convertible bonds and GPU-backed loans, and their biggest contracts are with US hyperscalers and labs for US sites: see European neoclouds and circular deals. Whether any of the $1.12tn lands in Ireland has to be read from Irish planning and grid data: investment in Ireland and Irish data centres.
Our reading. In about a year the build-out has shifted from mostly cash-funded towards financed: operating cash still covers capex and payouts in total, but not at Amazon or Oracle. Capex at the five is now 83% of operating cash, buybacks have been cut by 61%, debt has roughly doubled, and two of the five have sold new shares. The largest commitments, though, are not on any balance sheet: $1.12tn of signed leases, and guarantees from Nvidia and Alphabet that let others borrow.
Cash flows are from each company's cash-flow statement as tagged in XBRL; quarters not tagged directly are derived from year-to-date figures. Fiscal years differ (Microsoft to June, Oracle to May, Nvidia to January); each quarter sits in the calendar quarter it ends in, so 'latest four quarters' ends in Jun 2026 for most and Aug 2026 for Oracle. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus cash capex. Equipment taken on finance leases is not in cash capex, so free cash flow is flattered for Microsoft, Amazon and Meta. Amazon's capex and cash flow include its retail and logistics business, not only AWS. Debt is the carrying value of bonds, notes and term loans (current and long-term), excluding commercial paper and lease liabilities. Tags differ by company; Oracle and CoreWeave use different concepts from the rest. 'Leases not yet commenced' are signed leases (mostly data centres) that start later and so are not yet on the balance sheet. Each company states them in words, not tags; we read the sentence in each filing. They are undiscounted future payments, not debt, and some are subject to conditions (Microsoft says so for FY2026). Backlog is remaining performance obligations (RPO): contracted revenue not yet earned. Definitions differ (Amazon counts only contracts longer than a year). Backlog is not cash, and can be cut if customers fail. 'Shares sold' includes employee stock-plan proceeds where a company tags them together (Microsoft's ~$2bn a year is employee plans). Alphabet's and Oracle's 2026 figures are market offerings.
Questions people ask
- Can the hyperscalers afford their AI capex from cash flow?
- Mostly, but less than a year ago. Over their latest four quarters the five spent 83% of their operating cash flow on capex ($586bn of $707bn), leaving $121bn. That is about what they paid out in buybacks and dividends ($91bn). Oracle (−$28.7bn) and Amazon (−$11.6bn) had negative free cash flow; Microsoft kept $67bn (SEC EDGAR).
- How much debt have the hyperscalers taken on for AI?
- Their bonds and loans rose from about $232bn at the end of 2024 to $482bn by mid-2026, and they raised $272bn of new long-term debt in their latest four quarters. Microsoft raised none; its debt fell. These figures exclude leases (SEC EDGAR XBRL).
- What are leases that have not yet commenced?
- Signed leases, mostly for data centres, that start in future years. Until they start they sit outside the balance sheet and appear only as a sentence in the notes. At mid-2026 the five had $1.12tn of them: Microsoft $329.1bn, Oracle $288bn, Meta $279bn, Amazon $137.2bn and Alphabet $85.2bn.
- Are European investors funding US AI data centres?
- Partly. Of $326bn of bonds that Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle registered with the SEC from January 2025 to October 2026, 17% ($56bn) was sold in euros or sterling, all by Alphabet and Amazon. That includes an Alphabet sterling bond due in 2126 (424B prospectus supplements, our sum at ECB rates).
- Is the AI build-out a bubble?
- The filings cannot answer that. They show that spending has outgrown internal cash at two of the five, that borrowing and share sales have started, and that the strongest balance sheets (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta) still produce free cash flow. Credit spreads were still narrow at the latest reading. On these filings the weaker positions are Oracle, the neoclouds and the AI labs whose contracts fill the backlog, plus the off-balance-sheet guarantees given by Nvidia, Alphabet and Meta.